My Percy Harvin Blog

Defense

There comes a time in your fantasy draft when you have your starting QB, two or three RBs, three or four WRs, and possibly your Tight End taken care of. Adding depth is very important, but don't overlook the value of a top flight defense. The good thing about defenses are the elite ones don't tend to change from year to year despite injuries and turnover. Take the Giants for example. Who would have figured they would have an elite defense after Strahan retired and Osi went down? Yet, they did. Philly has had players come and go without missing a beat. Think about how long Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been elite fantasy defenses.

The top fantasy defenses based on Average Draft Position are:

Pittsburgh - 8th round
Baltimore & NY Giants - 9th round
Minnesota - 10th round

You can chose to wait until the 11th or 12 round, assuming there isn't a run on defenses, and land San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia, NY Jets or Tennessee.

Don't worry if you miss out on one of the top D's. There are still great values to be had later like New England, Green Bay, Dallas, and Washington, but landing Pittsburgh D can be a difference maker. Some of the players going in the 8th round along with Pittsburgh D are Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Percy Harvin. Jamal and Julius have little upside. Ahmad and Julius have great potential, but can you really rely on them any given week? Meanwhile Pittsburgh is a plug and play. You don't have to worry about matchups. You just use them every week.

Kickers

Yesterday we discussed being bold and taking a top defense early. Since the top defenses don't tend to change from year-to-year, it's a calculated risk. Kickers, on the other hand, are much more of a crap shoot. In fact, since 2002 there have only been two Kickers to be in the top five in points in consecutive seasons.

Stephen Gostkowski is one of the back-to-back Kickers so he may be the exception, although his average draft position is the 11th round. I see no reason why New England's offense doesn't continue to score in bunches, but personally I would rather secure a top flight defense or provide depth to another key position. Of course, I am not opposed to ditching the Kicker position all together, but that's a topic for a different day. If you are drafting a Kicker based on last year, you'll probably miss the boat. Here's a look at the top five point scorers from 2002-2008.

2008
Stephen Gostkowski - 148
David Akers - 144
John Carney - 143
Matt Bryant - 131
John Kasay - 130

2007
Mason Crosby - 141
Stephen Gostkowski - 137
Rob Bironas - 133
Nick Folk - 131
Shayne Graham - 130

2006
Robbie Gould - 143
Nate Kaeding - 136
Jeff Wilkins - 131
Matt Stover - 121
Josh Scobee - 119

2005
Jay Feely -148
Neil Rackers - 140
Shayne Graham - 131
Lawrence Tynes - 125
Mike Vanderjagt - 121

2004
Adam Vinatieri - 141
Jason Elam - 129
Jeff Reed - 124
David Akers - 122
Shayne Graham - 122

2003
Jeff Wilkins - 163
Mike Vanderjagt - 157
Matt Stover - 134
John Kasay - 125
Gary Anderson - 123

2002
Jay Feely - 138
David Akers - 133
John Carney - 130
Martin Gramatica - 128
Sebastian Janikowski - 128
Ryan Longwell - 128

My advice is fill your roster with good depth at your key positions and grab a Kicker in the last round. Odds are you're going to drop your Kicker in your bye week anyway. Unless you have an extremely deep roster, you don't want to hold onto two Kickers at one time.

Ryan Lester

http://lesterslegends.com

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At the present moment, the Florida Gators are the sure shot winners of the SEC with not a single team in sight who can match up to them.

There are of course the LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss. LSU and Alabama are the better teams of the lot but Ole Miss might have a breakout season this year. The chances aren't that great though for Ole Miss. Georgia is another team to watch out for with Mark Richt guiding them forth. However, it is highly unlikely that any of these teams would be able to get away with the title by defeating the Gators.

Hence, currently it is safe to predict that the Gators will win the trophy this time as well making it their second time in a row. What happens to the rest of rankings is actually what is interesting right now. Let's take a look at the Gators and the other two teams that at the top 3 for SEC this season.

Florida Gators - There's nothing much to say about this team except for how they completely dominated the conference. They completely routed Georgia, LSU and Alabama on their way to spectacularly defeating Oklahoma to win the national title. Those who think that this amazing performance cannot be repeated should think again. The entire 2009 team is the same as the 2008 time with Percy Harvin being the only exception. That means Tim Tebow is back at the quarterback position and all the starters, yes each and every one of them are returning this season. Only a sudden change can stop them now.

LSU Tigers - They are not going to be able to stand against the Gators but they are likely to win the West. Theirs is a team that has comparatively fewer weaknesses than the rest of the teams below them in the division. Their quarterback Jordan Jefferson has been a great last season and he could make 2009 a breakout season with the help of players like wideout Brandon LaFell and tailback Charles Scott he can really make things happen for the Tigers. The defensive portion of the team is quite good with Harry Coleman in the team still. Once they improve on their offense, they are very likely to go for the West title that is currently held by Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide - Everyone's completely in awe of Nick Saban right now and many believe that the Crimson Tide is going to be a great team from now till kingdom come. They are forgetting a major fact here. John Parker Wilson (Quarterback), Andre Smith (Offensive tackle) and Glen Coffee (tailback) have all left this season. These were the top performers of last year and Saban is to replace all three. Even though the man has been great at recruiting in recent time, it is uncertain whether Alabama will regain all of the lost force. They may win the SEC West title but they have to play much harder now.

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As great as the last 8 months of bragging about our national championship title have been, the time has finally come to move on. That's right Titletown, it is time to turn the page on the days of Chris Leak and Reggie Nelson and usher in a new era of Gator football. Don't despair Gator fans, there are still a few familiar faces from last year. Head coach Urban Meyer returns for his third year after posting a 22-4 record in his first two seasons leading the Gators, including an undefeated record in the Swamp. The ever-exciting Tim Tebow steps into the starting quarterback role determined to show that his arm can be as dangerous as his legs. The wide receiver corps also boasts a number of returning stars including Andre "Bubba" Caldwell, Percy Harvin, and Cornelius Ingram. The defense is a bit of a different story. The Gators return only 2 defensive starters from the 2006 squad.

So there will also be quite a bit of change. The many holes in the defense will be filled primarily by players from the last two recruiting classes (which were at or near the top of the national rankings by the way). Returning defensive end Derrick Harvey anchors the defensive line, but Meyer has said that as many as 6 freshman may compete for playing time there. The secondary is just as much of a concern after the departures of safety Reggie Nelson, and cornerbacks Ryan Smith and Reggie Lewis. Strong safety Tony Joiner returns for his senior year to lead the new group. Junior Markus Manson and sophomore Markihe Anderson are the leading candidates at cornerback and Kyle Jackson aims to fill the void left by Nelson.

Despite the many changes, expectations in Gainesville are still running pretty high. I've heard plenty of talk on campus of repeating as SEC champions, and even a little about Tebow and Harvin as potential Heisman candidates. Many sports commentators have said or written that these expectations are exaggerated and that this will be a rebuilding year for the Gators. They may be right, but aren't high hopes for your team what make the start of the season so exciting? I think so. Plus, nobody really knows what kind of season we are in store for. So how about giving the team a chance to show what they are made of before we judge them. If you need any help with that please talk to an Ohio State fan, as they were recently given a lesson in not underestimating the Gators. If that's not enough, here are 4 reasons why the Gators have the potential for another great year.

1. The Schedule

You have to like the Gators schedule this year. With the exception of the LSU game, all of our more difficult games are at home (Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida State). Again, the Gators are undefeated the last 2 years in the Swamp.

2. The offense

Playmakers abound with Tebow, Harvin, and Caldwell all returning. The offensive line is also fairly experienced.

3. The defense

Despite the changes on defense from last year, the Gators have plenty of talent and speed and if they can conquer their inexperience they have the potential to be good.

4. The coach

It is an undeniable fact that Urban Meyer is one of the premier head coaches in the country. He should be able to find a way to get the most out of the talented recruits he has brought in over the last 2 years.

- Tim aka T.laves

Author writes a weekly blog for the Gator's fan site at [http://www.Gatormaniacs.com]

If you aren't sure why Monday night's match up between the Vikings (-3.5) and Packers was the second most anticipated NFL match up this season, then the rock you've been living under is a dark, dark place full of shame and empty of Tivo. Take a moment and let it wash over you.

Let's be honest, this game has nothing to do about teams, and everything to do about Minnesota's newly acquired ring leader, Brett Favre, the long time Packer who faces his former team for the first time since his departure from Green Bay. After a roller coaster season with the Jets, and a rumor plagued off season regarding his return to football, Favre finally found Minnesota's offer too enticing to resist and joined a Vikings team that is going places.

Favre has it all. With a capable receiving core in Percy Harvin and Chester Taylor, an adoring fan base, and the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson (357 yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 games), Favre's Vikings appear to be the clear favorite to clinch the NFC North playoff spot. That is, unless Green bay has anything to say about it.

Green Bay enters Minneapolis on Monday back in stride after manhandling the over matched Rams 36-17 in St. Louis. While not completely over the hangover from a surprising 31-24 to the Bengals in week 2, quarterback Aaron Rodgers took command connecting on 13 of his 23 attempts for 269 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and just for good measure, rushing for a touchdown of his own. In his second full season at the helm of a Favreless Packer squad, Aaron Rodgers has accumulated 32 touchdowns on nearly 5000 passing yards through his first 19 games. While his production hasn't translated into as many wins as the Pack would hope for (8-11), this Green Bay team has a chip on its shoulder that could give them the edge they need heading into what could be a critical game in deciding who takes the NFC North crown.

Minnesota has had minimal resistance in getting out to its strong start. Handling the Browns and Lions as any competent team would, Favre... well... Favre'd the 49ers in week 3, throwing a last minute, 32 yard, perfect placement pass to Greg Lewis to move the Vikings into first place in the division. This is what we've all been waiting for: the new sheriff in town defending his honor against the organization that tried to send him out to pasture. If any team could march into the Metrodome and come out with a win it's the Green bay Packers. However, despite regaining their footing against a laughable Rams squad, look for Rodgers to spend most of the night on his back as his offensive line continues to struggle in protecting the pass, and ensuring a Vikings win.

Act one will go to Minnesota, but the question remains: How's it going to go in Lambeau? Stay tuned.

Final Score: 24 - 20 Vikings

Matt Sweet is an up and coming sports journalist who is directly collaborating with http://www.superpredictors.com

2008 represented a tremendous year for rookies in terms of fantasy football. I know because I rode 2 of them (Chris Johnson and Matt Forte) to a league championship. What will the draft class of 2009 have in store for fantasy owners come this fall? Personally, I don't believe that this years class is talented as last years but time will tell. The following represent my preliminary takes regarding the 2009 draft class:

--Matthew Stafford QB (DET)

What kind of pro QB will Stafford be? Will he be like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco or will his fate be more similar to Tim Couch or Joey Harrington? Fantasy owners likely won't have a chance to find out next season. Although Lions coach Jim Schwartz said he will keep an open mind in the battle for the top spot on the depth chart, more than likely Daunte Culpepper will be the starting QB for Detroit when they open the season against the Saints in the Superdome September, 13th. That scenario doesn't allow Stafford much of a chance to make an impact in fantasy circles. Moreover, it's hard to envision a scenario where he comes out and has any value as a rookie. Ryan and Flacco were both fifth-year seniors coming out of college and possessed much more maturity heading into the NFL than the underclassman Stafford does. Stafford's value will be limited to keeper and dynasty leagues on fantasy Draft Day.

--Knowshon Moreno RB (DEN)

Searching for 2009's top fantasy rookie? Well, look no further than Moreno. Moreno is by far the most talented running back in the 2009 class and I expect him to come right in and become the starter for the Broncos. Although, the Broncos did add several veteran RB's this past off season none of them have nearly the same talent as Moreno. I see Moreno as a No. 3 fantasy runner in 2009 with potential for more. However, because of the depth the Broncos have at the position, the former Bulldog is more likely to be seen as a viable flex starter in most drafts. Obviously, he's also a tremendous option in keeper and dynasty leagues.

--Chris "Beanie" Wells RB (AZ)

The Arizona Cardinals took the Ohio State power back with their first round selection, setting up an interesting depth chart battle this summer. Most pundits believe that Wells is the 2nd best RB prospect in the draft behind Moreno. Furthermore, Wells is a definite upgrade over Tim Hightower and I expect Wells to emerge atop the team's depth chart as a rookie leaving Hightower to serve as third-down back for the defending NFC champions. Whoever gets the goal line carries will obviously hold more fantasy value than the other but right now I see Wells as the better option in seasonal and keeper leagues. Both Wells and Moreno will have difficulty reaching the standards set by Johnson, Forte and Slaton from a year ago.

--Michael Crabtree WR (SF)

The Raiders loss is the 49ers gain. After the Raiders passed on Crabtree you know SF would eat him right up and they did. Crabtree was hailed as the top wideout in the draft, and he will undoubtedly have a chance to start as a rookie under coach Mike Singletary. The Niners are looking to be will a run-first team this year, however, so fantasy owners need to keep that in mind heading into 2009. Still, he'll still be worth a middle- to late-round pick in seasonal fantasy drafts and is quite capable of putting up some nice stats as a rookie.

--Percy Harvin WR/KR (MIN)

Percy Harvin still landed in the first round despite some "character" issues and will become a serious play maker for the Minnesota Vikings. Can you imagine the Vikings lining up Harvin and Peterson in the Wildcat? Harvin has immense speed and skills as a runner and receiver and I fully expect him to compete with Sidney Rice for the number 2 WR alongside Bernard Berrian. Due to his immense potential and explosiveness, Harvin will warrant a late-round flier in most fantasy drafts and surely will do some damage at some point for the Vikings. Moreover, Harvin instantly makes the Vikings DST even better than they were last year.

--Jeremy Maclin WR (PHI)

The Eagles finally gave Donovan McNabb some weapons. Maclin has immense speed and can stretch defenses in the vertical pass attack. Furthermore, he was an absolute steal where the Eagles got him. After watching an Eagle rookie WR make an impact last year there is nothing to say Maclin cannot do the same. Look for Maclin to be a late round pick this summer and I fully expect him to make some big plays for McNabb and the Eagles this fall.

--Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton OT (JAX)

Sure, offensive linemen aren't drafted in fantasy football, but that doesn't make them any less important to your team's success. Injuries absolutely decimated the Jaguars offensive line last season and was the predominant reason the team failed to make the playoffs after a very successful 2007 season. The Jags want to get back to Jag football so it was no surprise to see the team land both OT Eugene Monroe in Round 1 AND Eben Britton in round 2. The acquisition of both Monroe and Britton will only make Maurice Jones Drew more attractive in fantasy drafts. Look for MJD to be a top 5 pick this summer.

--Jason Smith OT (STL)

The addition Smith is a real positive for the value of RB Steven Jackson. Now it is up to Jackson to stay healthy and produce the numbers that fantasy owners have been yearning from him for years. With a new defensive minded head coach the Rams want to run the ball and feature Jackson in their backfield, and Smith's presence will be huge in making the ground attack effective. Furthermore, the Rams also added FB Mike Karney this off season. As I mentioned it is now all up to Jackson to achieve his potential. He will surely go in the first round again this year. Time will tell if he is worth it.

--Mark Sanchez QB (NYJ)

Mark Sanchez was the hottest name in the 2009 class in the days before the draft and after the Jets pursuit of Brett Favre last year it was no surprise that the Jets traded two draft picks and three players to move up and select him. Alth0ugh Sanchez has started a mere 16 games at the collegiate level, he could very well wind up starting for new coach Rex Ryan when the Jets open their season. In fact, Ryan has told the media that Sanchez will in fact compete for the top spot with Kellen Clemens. Personally, I don't see Sanchez making any noise this year as a rookie and would avoid him on draft day except in keeper and dynasty leagues.

--Kenny Britt WR (TN)

The Titans have been desperate for WR's in recent years and hope they have found their number 1 with Kenny Britt out of Rutgers. Coach Jeff Fisher told the media that he wants to get Britt onto the field as soon as possible, so don't be shocked to see him starting on opening day. The Titans also signed former Steeler Nate Washington this off season so it could be difficult for Britt to make a significant fantasy impact in what will remain a run-based offense with Chris Johnson and Lendale White. He is definitely a player to watch in the preseason, but more than likely won't have more than late-round value in seasonal formats.

--Darius Heyward-Bey WR (OAK)

Being a huge Raider fan I was upset but not at all shocked at this move. It is clear at this point that Al Davis values pure speed more than any other attribute. Was Jerry Rice fast? Is Larry Fitzgerald a burner? The answer to both of these questions is no but one was the best there ever was and one is the best presently. However, with no clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver on the Raiders roster, Heyward-Bey will warrant late-round consideration in seasonal fantasy drafts and will have ample balls thrown to him this fall. Time will tell how this all works out and Heyward-Bey and Crabtree will be forever linked.

--Donald Brown RB (IND)

Donald Brown will immediately be thrown into the mix with the Colts and that spells good news for fantasy owners who draft him this summer. I have never really been sold on Joseph Addai and I don't think the Colts are either. Although, new Head Coach Jim Caldwell told the media that Addai will remain the team's No. 1 back, owners should definitely expect a committee situation to evolve in Indy. Addai should receive more carries, but any kind of platoon hurts his value in both seasonal and keeper leagues. Addai is no more than a No. 2 back in fantasy circles. As for Brown, he'll be worth a middle- to late-round selection and is a must for anyone drafting Addai.

In summary, it will be interesting to see what kind of impact these and the entire 2009 rookie class will have on the 2009 NFL season. They have large shoes to fill on account of last year.

Cheers and Beers

Chris Limburg is the fanatical purveyor of Gothicfootball.com: A Oakland Raider/fantasy football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL and fantasy football. Visit today at: [http://www.gothicfootball.com]

Brett Favre has retired...again...or maybe not...

As of Tuesday morning it looked like Favre retiring was a definite. However, 24 hours later the Minnesota Vikings reportedly are offering Favre more money to comeback. So who knows where we stand at this point. There is one group that believes that #4 is off to a life of 'early bird specials'; that group is the online gambling outfits.

Shortly after the announcement came out Tuesday morning, the odds-makers got their calculators out and adjusted the Minnesota Vikings betting numbers for the 2010 NFL season.

Taking a glance at the Vikings pre and post retirement betting numbers, it is obvious that the bookies believe that Minnesota is a much better team with the future Hall of Famer under center, as opposed to Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson.

Here are some of the betting odds that changed drastically on Tuesday due to Favre's alleged retirement.

Vikings Total Regular Season Wins

Pre Favre Retirement: Over/Under 9.5 wins

Post Favre Retirement: Over/Under 8.5 wins

In 2008 with Gus Frerotte and Jackson splitting time, the Vikings tallied 10 regular season wins. However, they do have a difficult schedule this season as six of their ten non-divisional opponents made the playoffs last season. The over still seems to be the value bet even without Favre.

Vikings NFC North Odds

Pre Favre Retirement: +150

Post Favre Retirement: +280

Despite winning the NFC North last season and going 5-1 against divisional opponents, Minnesota wasn't favored to win the NFC North this season even before Tuesday; that honor goes to the Green Bay Packers.
Before it was announced that Favre is allegedly done, online sporsbooks listed Green Bay as the slight +120 favorite. After the odds-makers adjusted their numbers, they have the Pack as the overwhelming -160 favorite to win the North.

Vikings NFC Odds

Pre Favre Retirement: +600

Post Favre Retirement: +1000

Vikings Super Bowl Odds

Pre Favre Retirement: +1200

Post Favre Retirement: +2000

Is it really out of the realm of possibility to think that the Vikings can represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and possibly win the whole thing? Why can't they?

Whether Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson is calling the plays in the huddle for the Vikings in 2010, one thing is for sure, he'll be surrounded by plenty of talent.

Wide receiver Sidney Rice is coming off a breakout year in which he accumulated 1,312 yards to go along with eight touchdowns.

On the other side will be the 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin. One of the NFL's most exciting players, Harvin is a threat to get into the end zone every time he touches the ball.

If both of the receivers are covered, Sage/Tarvaris will have tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to dump the ball off to. A tight end who likes to let it all hang out, Shiancoe caught 11 touchdowns last year.

Of course the Vikings won't have trouble running the ball as Adrian Peterson is one of the best in the business. Even with his fumbling issues in 2009, Peterson racked up 1,383 rushing yards and an NFL best 18 touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the ball the Vikings return a unit that ranked sixth in entire league in each of the last two years. Without a doubt, they are a Super Bowl quality defense.

Given Favre's history of false retirements, it is a little surprising that some sportsbooks already adjusted these odds instead of simply closing the odds like some of the competition. With Favre telling ESPN's Ed Werder Wednesday morning that if he is healthy, he will play it leads one to believe that there is definitely some betting value on all of the Minnesota Vikings' betting numbers listed above.

Eddie Aces is the managing partner of Oddsauthority.com. With almost a decade working in sports gambling industry, Eddie gives his readers an insiders perspective on how to wager and where to wager. Whether the reader is a betting novice or a seasoned pro, Oddsauthority.com has everything sports bettors need in order to beat the bookie.