Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Is Brett Favre Retiring? Sportsbooks Think So

Brett Favre has retired...again...or maybe not...


As of Tuesday morning it looked like Favre retiring was a definite. However, 24 hours later the Minnesota Vikings reportedly are offering Favre more money to comeback. So who knows where we stand at this point. There is one group that believes that #4 is off to a life of 'early bird specials'; that group is the online gambling outfits.


Shortly after the announcement came out Tuesday morning, the odds-makers got their calculators out and adjusted the Minnesota Vikings betting numbers for the 2010 NFL season.


Taking a glance at the Vikings pre and post retirement betting numbers, it is obvious that the bookies believe that Minnesota is a much better team with the future Hall of Famer under center, as opposed to Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson.


Here are some of the betting odds that changed drastically on Tuesday due to Favre's alleged retirement.


Vikings Total Regular Season Wins


Pre Favre Retirement: Over/Under 9.5 wins


Post Favre Retirement: Over/Under 8.5 wins


In 2008 with Gus Frerotte and Jackson splitting time, the Vikings tallied 10 regular season wins. However, they do have a difficult schedule this season as six of their ten non-divisional opponents made the playoffs last season. The over still seems to be the value bet even without Favre.


Vikings NFC North Odds


Pre Favre Retirement: +150


Post Favre Retirement: +280


Despite winning the NFC North last season and going 5-1 against divisional opponents, Minnesota wasn't favored to win the NFC North this season even before Tuesday; that honor goes to the Green Bay Packers.
Before it was announced that Favre is allegedly done, online sporsbooks listed Green Bay as the slight +120 favorite. After the odds-makers adjusted their numbers, they have the Pack as the overwhelming -160 favorite to win the North.


Vikings NFC Odds


Pre Favre Retirement: +600


Post Favre Retirement: +1000


Vikings Super Bowl Odds


Pre Favre Retirement: +1200


Post Favre Retirement: +2000


Is it really out of the realm of possibility to think that the Vikings can represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and possibly win the whole thing? Why can't they?


Whether Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson is calling the plays in the huddle for the Vikings in 2010, one thing is for sure, he'll be surrounded by plenty of talent.


Wide receiver Sidney Rice is coming off a breakout year in which he accumulated 1,312 yards to go along with eight touchdowns.


On the other side will be the 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin. One of the NFL's most exciting players, Harvin is a threat to get into the end zone every time he touches the ball.


If both of the receivers are covered, Sage/Tarvaris will have tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to dump the ball off to. A tight end who likes to let it all hang out, Shiancoe caught 11 touchdowns last year.


Of course the Vikings won't have trouble running the ball as Adrian Peterson is one of the best in the business. Even with his fumbling issues in 2009, Peterson racked up 1,383 rushing yards and an NFL best 18 touchdowns.


On the defensive side of the ball the Vikings return a unit that ranked sixth in entire league in each of the last two years. Without a doubt, they are a Super Bowl quality defense.


Given Favre's history of false retirements, it is a little surprising that some sportsbooks already adjusted these odds instead of simply closing the odds like some of the competition. With Favre telling ESPN's Ed Werder Wednesday morning that if he is healthy, he will play it leads one to believe that there is definitely some betting value on all of the Minnesota Vikings' betting numbers listed above.


Eddie Aces is the managing partner of Oddsauthority.com. With almost a decade working in sports gambling industry, Eddie gives his readers an insiders perspective on how to wager and where to wager. Whether the reader is a betting novice or a seasoned pro, Oddsauthority.com has everything sports bettors need in order to beat the bookie.

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