My Percy Harvin Blog

It seems the trendy statistic in the NFL is the number of targets a player receives. Quite simply, it's the number of times the ball is thrown to a player. Obviously it's important that a player gets thrown to in order to put up numbers, but is it being over-hyped?

Here are the top 12 targeted WRs (Statistics as of 10/16/09):
Andre Johnson - 52
Nate Burleson - 49
Steve Smith (NYG) - 49
Randy Moss - 48
Reggie Wayne - 48
Chad Ochocinco - 46
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 45
Steve Smith (CAR) - 43
Santonio Holmes - 41
Calvin Johnson - 41
Wes Welker - 41
Hines Ward - 40

Now here are the top 12 fantasy WRs (non-PPR leagues):
Steve Smith (NYG) - 72.1
Reggie Wayne - 69.9
Andre Johnson - 67.7
Brandon Marshall - 54.8
Chad Ochocinco - 53.0
Nate Burleson - 53.0
Mario Manningham - 52.2
Miles Austin - 51.1
Roddy White - 50.9
Larry Fitzgerald - 50.0
Vincent Jackson - 49.3
Hines Ward - 49.0

Notice that five of the top targeted WRs don't show up.

The next four highest scoring WRs are DeSean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Santana Moss, and Percy Harvin, which makes them the 13th-16th ranked fantasy WRs.

Jackson, Sims-Walker, and Harvin don't rank among the top 30 targeted WRs. Santana Moss is 22nd.

Steve Smith (CAR), Wes Welker, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin, Justin Gage, Eddie Royal, Mark Clayton, Mushin Muhammad, Bryant Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Louis Murphy, and Patrick Crayton are among the top 30 targeted WRs yet they aren't among the top 30 fantasy scoring WRs. That's a staggering 40%.

While it is a useful statistic, do not put too much stock in it. The most important statistic for a WR is TDs. It is no coincidence that the top ten scoring WRs all have 3 or 4 TDs so far. Obviously a close second is yardage. That's where the scoring comes from.

PPR leagues add a point per reception, but I am vehemently opposed to PPR leagues. It overvalues possession receivers and short-changes deep threats. For the life of me I can not figure out why someone would agree that 3 catches for 15 yards should be more valuable than 1 30 yard catch. That's a different discussion for a different day.

The bottom line is use targets as a guide, but don't ignore the age old indicators of fantasy production.

Ryan Lester
http://lesterslegends.com

Helping you win your fantasy football, baseball, basketball, and hockey leagues.

Most valuable Rookie

As the 2009-10 season winds down in the NFL we have several very talented rookies jockeying for the honor of being called respectfully the Offensive & Defensive "Rookie of the Year". When the season started I had Percy Harvin of the Minnesota Vikings as the clear cut favorite for the award, I must admit I was a huge fan of his during his college days at the University of Florida. Percy Harvin is by far the most versatile of all NFL Rookies, he is able to catch & run the ball while lining up at multiple positions. There are other players that are also making an impact on their teams such as Lesean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles, who is 2nd among all rookies rushing the ball with 528 yards from scrimmage. Lesean McCoy also has recorded 27 receptions and 206 yards receiving which are the most among all 1st year running backs. Knowshon Moreno of the Denver Broncos is another player that has been very productive in his short NFL career as well, with his 688 yards rushing he has out ran all other first-year players so far at this point in the season. Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets has looked good at times as well as Matt Stafford of the Detroit Lions.

Now let's take a look at the potential "Defensive Rookie of the Year" Award nominees, there has been some good players, some so-so players & some have been a bust. But these handful of defensive players have made a huge impact not only on their respective teams, but to the NFL as well. Let's start our conversation off by talking about Brian Orakpo outside linebacker of the Washington Redskins, he has had a big year on a losing team but his 7 sacks leads all players in that category. Another player with potential to be very good for the long haul is outside linebacker Clay Matthews of the Green Bay Packers, he is currently 2nd among all rookies in sacks with 5. The former college teammate of Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing outside linebacker of the Houston Texans has also had a big of a year as any other rookie with his rookie leading 99 combined tackles. Brian is also 2nd among all first-year players with 3 interceptions as well. This next rookie isn't getting a lot of press but he has put up some very impressive stats quietly; I'm talking about Jarius Byrd free safety of the Buffalo Bills who leads all first-year players with 8 interceptions. And last but not least rounding out this fantastic bunch of defensive rookies is James Larenitis middle linebacker of the Saint Louis Rams, who has been very impressive on a bad team. James is 2nd among all rookies in combined tackles with 85 and he is also the leader amongst all rookies with 75 solo tackles.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin (Minn.) Dark horse: Lesean McCoy (Phila.)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Cushing (Hou.) Dark horse: Brian Orakpo (Wash.)

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The last thing Brett Favre wants to hear is wide receiver woes for the Minnesota Vikings. Unfortunately, that is what everyone is talking about. Who is Favre going to be throwing to this season?

It has been reported that Favre's favorite target, Pro Bowl wide receiver Sidney Rice, underwent surgery on his hip Monday in Vail Colorado. He injured his hip last season in the NFC Championship game against the New Orleans Saints. He May miss up to half the season.

Many people have all asked the same question, why didn't Rice have the surgery during the off season? Viking Coach Brad Childers said that the team doctor and the other specialists told rice that the surgery was not needed, and that the injury could be taken care of with physical therapy. Other specialists told Rice to have the surgery during the off season. Obviously, Rice elected to have physical therapy and thought he would be ready for the season opener. Obviously, this was not the case.

Rice missed all of training camp and was on the unable to perform list.

According to Rice himself, the surgery went well. He stated that he has already undergone a few physical therapy sessions and can ride an exercise bike with assistance. He says he hopes to return before mid-season.

Recovery and rehabilitation for this kind of hip surgery typically takes around eight weeks.

Sidney Rice is entering his fourth year in the National Football League, coming off of a Pro-Bowl season in 2009. Last year Rice had 83 catches, 1312 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

It is quite an understatement to say that much of Favre's success last years came because of his corp. of wide receivers. Favre felt comfortable throwing to Rice because of his great ball handling skills and his ability to adjust to the ball down the field.

Needles to say Favre still has receivers, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and recently acquired Javon Walker. Everyone knows Percy Harvin is not 100 percent. Harvin has been recently hospitalized and has missed practices and pre-season games due to his battle with ongoing migraine headaches.

Vikings signed free agent Javon Walker who has played with Favre for three seasons with the Green Bay Packers. Walker made the Pro-Bowl in 2004 but has suffered knee injuries since then.

Hopefully Rice will return to the Vikings before mid-season because undoubtedly Brett Favre has lost one of his biggest weapons.

~ MRM

Bob Molton - The Last Word In Sports

Please Visit The Last Word In Sports for current updated sports news.

This game features two exciting 2-0 teams and 2 of the top 3 rushers in the league so far. This will be Brett Favre's first home game in a Vikings uniform, so we can expect his 39-year old body to be hyped up to play.

49ers on Offense

San Francisco will look to pound the ball against Minnesota with Frank Gore, who is by far their offensive MVP. Gore has a great knack for finding open space and breaking for big gains, as seen last week against the Seahawks. Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye will dish out a bunch of different formations and blocking schemes to disguise certain running plays and give Gore an edge out of the backfield. But the Seahawks rush defense is a far cry from Minnesota's, who has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. Minnesota will have to dig deep and try to neutralize Gore in order to put pressure on QB Shaun Hill to make plays. Hill has been consistent, but he has only thrown one touchdown and hasn't had to go out and win a game yet. Not to mention that he'll be playing on the road against a solid pass rush led by Jared Allen, which ranks third in the league with seven sacks. Hill will have to use the services of veteran receiver Isaac Bruce and his dependable TE Vernon Davis, who will be tough for CB's Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin to bring down in the open field. Too bad Michael Crabtree is a no-show for San Francisco; they could've used him this week.

Vikings on Offense

Like San Francisco, the Vikings' offense relies on their stud RB, Adrian "All-Day" Peterson. Even with his hurt back, Peterson will be dangerous against the Niners. But San Francisco's rush defense has allowed only 53 yards per game and 0 rushing TDs in two games this season. So for Minnesota to get an early lead at home, they should go after the big plays. This means that Favre has to shake off his bent fingernail and bring back the old-school, aggressive Brett from Green Bay. And by old-school I don't mean he should take too many chances and throw interceptions, but he may have to break from his conservative role and look for rookie Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Sidney Rice for the long ball. This receiving corps is one of the fastest in the league and will pose a threat to the Niners secondary. When it comes down to match ups, the Vikings offense is complete and has too many weapons for San Francisco to handle. If the Vikings can get an early lead, Shaun Hill and the Niners will have a tough time playing from behind on the road.

Prediction

Minnesota                  27

San Francisco             20

Here are the next 3 winners of this year's 2007 college football bowl game results:

Capital One Bowl - Michigan Outlasts Florida, 41-35, as Lloyd Carr Wins His Last Game

If the Michigan Wolverines had wrapped it up and put it under the tree, outgoing coach Lloyd Carr could not have received a better Christmas gift from his players as they overcame 4 turnovers to turn back No. 9 Florida, 41-35, in the Capital One Bowl.

The longtime, popular Michigan coach announced his retirement after another loss to Ohio State in November. Had he not retired, he would probably have been asked to leave. Michigan hired Rich Rodriguez who bolted from his head coaching job at West Virginia to take over Michigan's storied football program.

The win was huge for Michigan's seniors as they won their first bowl game in 4 tries. Chad Henne threw for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns and Mike Hart pounded out 129 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Gators kept the game close thanks to Michigan's 4 turnovers and plenty of big plays by sophomore Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and his speedy teammate Percy Harvin. Tebow was playing with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand and was under constant blitz pressure yet was still 17-of-33 for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also ran for 57 yards and another score.

Harvin picked up 165 yards on 13 carries (12.6 yards per carry), scored once, and also caught 9 passes for another 77 yards and a second touchdown. In the end, it was not enough as Michigan won one for Carr.

The Gators failed to convert a 4th-down play at its 25-yard line and K. C. Lopata's 41-yard field goal put Michigan ahead 41-35 with only 2:21 remaining. Florida got another shot but Tebow threw 4 straight air balls. Both Michigan and Florida finished the season with 9-4 marks.

BCS Rose Bowl - Southern California Crushes Illinois, 49-17, to Make a Statement

Pete Carroll and his Southern Cal players still are thinking BCS national championship game, but the Trojans are going to have to wait another year for that to happen. They might have finished at 11-2, the same as Louisiana State that will play in the title game, but the Trojans lost at the wrong time to the wrong team-Stanford at home.

In a display of frustration and unrest, Southern Cal literally stomped Illinois 49-17 in the BCS Rose Bowl game to make a statement. Freshman tailback Joe "Where Do They Find These Guys?" McKnight ripped through the Illini defense for 170 yards (125 yards rushing and 45 yards receiving). McKnight's output was part of the Trojans' 633 yards of offense.

The output set a Rose Bowl record and the Trojans' 49 points tied the record. The blowout game gave Southern Cal 11 wins for an unprecedented 6th straight year. Illinois Coach Ron Zook still finished the year at 9-4, an unreal turnaround after a 2-19 record in his first two years at Illinois.

Do not be confused here, Illinois was a 13.5 point underdog going in. Remember that it was Illinois which dealt Ohio State its only loss, 28-21, and the Buckeyes will be facing LSU in the national championship game. Hats off to Zook and his players for an incredible year.

BCS Sugar Bowl - Hawaii's Unbeaten Streak Ends as Georgia Wins Easily, 41-10

Georgia's Bulldogs were hopping mad that they were not invited to play in the BCS national championship game, and Hawaii's Warriors were on the receiving end of their displeasure, losing 41-10 as their dream of a perfect season ended in the BCS Sugar Bowl.

Hawaii came into the game at 12-0, the only undefeated team among the NCAA's 119 Division 1A schools. They did it with coach June Jones' run-and-shoot offense that averaged 46+ points a game, the arm of junior quarterback Colt Brennan and some great receivers.

Brennan is the real deal. He has set more NCAA passing records than Carter has liver pills, but nothing seemed to impress Georgia, and especially Marcus Howard, who became the game's MVP as he had 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a tipped ball that teammate Dannell Ellerbe intercepted.

The truth is Georgia was simply too big, too fast and too strong for the Islanders this time around.

Howard and his defensive mates lived in Hawaii's backfield as Brennan was sacked 8 times, threw 3 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles, one of which Georgia recovered for a touchdown. Georgia's defensive line pushed Hawaii all over the field; Brennan was lucky to get out of New Orleans alive and well enough to be drafted for Sunday duty in the NFL.

"It was the fastest team I've probably ever seen," said Brennan. To be fair, they would not have been so fast in the Warrior offensive line had played better and given Brennan more protection so Hawaii's offense could be effective.

It was a good but difficult game for Hawaii to swallow, but the Warriors will live to fight another day. They had to know that their 12-0 record was against much weaker competition than every other BCS team faced. They had their way in the Western Athletic Conference, even taking down Boise State, which also lost its bowl game to lowly East Carolina 41-38. Even the Washington Huskies, who had a 21-point lead on Hawaii, could not beat the Warriors as their game ended with Hawaii on top.

The citizens of Hawaii fell in love with their Warriors and well they should have. Hawaii had a signature year. Other teams are now trying to steal June Jones away from Hawaii. It was worth the defeat when you know that Hawaii figures to make a $4 million payout for its appearance in the BCS Sugar Bowl. For a team whose recruiting budget was a paltry $50,000 a year, that is a lot of moola. Hawaii can now afford to recruit talent on the mainland.

June Jones has become an opportunity for some other teams. His run-and-shoot offense has resulted in a 76-41 record (64% win percentage) in 9 seasons, including this year's 12-1 mark and BCS bowl appearance. Jones took over a Hawaii team that was winless in 1998 and went 9-4 in his first season. Translation: You do not need to stay awake nights praying for Hawaii's success; the Warriors and doing just fine, thank you.

(Editor's Note: This is the 6th article of a series on the 2007 bowl game results.)

Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley

Ed Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.

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The NFC and AFC Championship Games are nearing, and that means more fantasy football to devour at RotoPlay. And to help you assemble the most potent roster possible, here is this week's forecast.

(Note: The scoring for this contest covers just this week, as opposed to the other fantasy football playoff contests on RotoPlay, which run through the Super Bowl)

Player 1

1) Drew Brees: Brees blistered the Cardinals for nearly 250 passing yards and three touchdowns last week as New Orleans took a wrecking ball to Arizona's hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl. And despite how dominant the Vikings seemed last week against Dallas, their pass defense was not intimidating during the regular season. Minnesota was 19th in pass defense for the year, and 23rd in passing scores given up. If the Saints' offensive line can keep Brees upright, he could have a monster day.

2) Peyton Manning: In the regular season, the Jets gave up an average of 30 fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the league, and allowed six fewer touchdown passes than any other team. They've been good this postseason as well, picking off three passes and allowing only two touchdowns, but Manning is arguably the best quarterback ever, and he defies those statistics - well, at least to the point where we'll rank him second in this group.

3) Brett Favre: Favre enjoyed the first postseason four-touchdown game of his storied career last week, as the Vikings hammered the Cowboys in every which way. True, one of those was a semi-controversial toss in garbage time at the end of the fourth quarter, but it really only rankled some members of the Dallas Cowboys, and likely their fans (certainly, Favre's postseason fantasy football owners enjoyed it). Really, the only concern with Favre is that he reverts back to his old ways and starts slinging the ball around, especially because the Saints were third in the NFL in interceptions, and have a knack for creating key turnovers.

4) Mark Sanchez: For obvious reasons, Sanchez really shouldn't be considered as an option among the other stalwarts in this group.

Player 2

1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson ran for only 63 yards in Minnesota's blowout win over Dallas last week, continuing a trend that has seen him run for fewer than 100 yards in nine consecutive games. It should be noted, however, than he ran for at least 80 yards in four of those games, and has become an effective weapon as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, having caught at least three passes for at least 40 yards in four of his last five regular season games. The Saints are not particularly torrid in run defense, ranking 21st in the NFL in that statistic in the regular season, and allowed 6.7 yards per carry against the Cardinals last week. The optimist in you may just say he's due for a big game.

2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas overcame a rib injury and ran the ball 13 times for 52 yards against Arizona last week. He also caught four passes for 18 yards, and that's where his value comes into play, especially in this scoring format and against the formidable run defense of the Vikings, who were second in the NFL against the run this season and tied with the Packers for fewest rushing scores allowed.

3) Joseph Addai: Addai isn't a running back that will pile up huge numbers, but he does a little bit of everything. Unfortunately, he hasn't done enough for his postseason fantasy football owners, such as last week's 11-carry, 23-yard performance. Still, he found the end zone frequently this season (13 touchdowns), and he's also caught at least three passes in each of his last five games.

4) Thomas Jones: Though Jones remains the lead back for the Jets in theory, Shonn Greene has seemingly taken over that role in the postseason. Jones has run for only 75 yards on 29 carries with one score in the Jets' two playoff games, and he hasn't caught a single pass.

Player 3

1) Shonn Greene: As mentioned above, Greene has taken the lead for the Jets in the running game. He's had two fabulous outings, running for 135 yards and one touchdown against the Bengals, and 128 yards and one score against the Chargers. Indianapolis was just 24th in the league against the run during the regular season, and Greene had 95 yards against them in Week 16.

2) Reggie Bush: Bush had his best game of the season in terms of total yards last week against the Cardinals, running for 84 yards and one score on five carries, and catching four passes for 24 yards. Maybe it was because Kim Kardashian was in the building, but last week Bush also showed toughness while running the ball, something he hadn't shown much of previously. One of the things holding him back in this scoring format is that he doesn't get many carries, but he's still as explosive a player as a fantasy football owner could ask for.

3) Chester Taylor: Taylor had 23 yards rushing on four carries last week against the Cowboys, and 16 yards on two receptions. When he gets the opportunity, he can make plays, but he simply doesn't get the amount of overall opportunities that you're likely to see from the above options.

4) Donald Brown: Brown only ran the ball six times for 10 yards against the Ravens, though he did have two receptions for 15 yards. Still, the other options in this group are simply sounder than the rookie from UConn.

Player 4

1) Dallas Clark: Clark caught four passes for 57 yards against the Jets in Week 16 before being yanked from the game. In the Colts' win over the Ravens last week, he had seven receptions for 59 yards, marking the third time in four contests he caught exactly seven balls. With receptions so valuable in this scoring format, he's No. 1 in this group. And as good as the Jets are against the pass, Antonio Gates had eight catches for 93 yards in San Diego's loss to New York last week.

2) Sidney Rice: Rice was a monster in Minnesota's dismantling of the Cowboys, catching six passes, half of which went for touchdowns, and accumulating 142 receiving yards. It was his second straight game with six catches for over 100 yards with multiple touchdowns. He's clearly in sync with Brett Favre, and is an outstanding option for obvious reasons.

3) Marques Colston: Colston led his team with six receptions and 83 receiving yards last week against the Cardinals, and he also found the end zone. It was the third time in his last four games (with Week 17 being the exception) that Colston caught at least five passes for at least 75 yards. He's New Orleans' No. 1 target at wide receiver, and thus, an option worth seriously considering.

4) Reggie Wayne: Yes, Vincent Jackson had over 100 receiving yards last week even though Darrelle Revis was covering him, but in a fantasy football format where you have other very good options, we'd simply stay away from the best cornerback in the land.

Player 5

1) Percy Harvin: Harvin wasn't involved much in Minnesota's win over the Cowboys last week, catching only one pass for a single yard and running the ball three times for 23 yards, but you have to believe that will change. That outing was the first time Harvin was in single digits in receiving yards all season, and in what promises to be a high-scoring affair this week, you have to believe the rookie from Florida will be in the mix offensively for the Vikings.

2) Robert Meachem: Like Harvin, Meachem did not figure into his team's offense last week, failing to catch even one pass for the first time since Week 7. Yet also like Harvin, expect him to be a bigger part of his team's offense this week, though he ranks behind the rookie because he hasn't been as consistent throughout the course of the season as Harvin has.

3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon, who did not play against the Jets in Week 16 when New York visited Indy, had five receptions for just 34 yards last week against the Ravens. The Jets are No. 1 against the pass, and even with Darrelle Revis likely covering Reggie Wayne most of the day, Garcon will still have his work cut out for him.

4) Braylon Edwards: Sometimes Edwards has it, sometimes he does not, and last week's two-reception, 41-yard effort against the Chargers did little to inspire confidence that he'd show up this week against the Colts' solid pass defense.

Player 6

1) Jerricho Cotchery: Cotchery has put up solid numbers in the playoffs thus far, with nine receptions for 92 yards in two games, and over the course of the season he's shown himself to be the team's top pass-catching threat. And let's face it - the Jets will have to throw the ball at some point, especially if the Colts get out to an early lead, putting Cotchery, who had four catches for 45 yards against Indy in Week 16, in a position to contribute.

2) Austin Collie: Collie had big numbers against the Jets in their Week 16 match-up, with six catches for 94 yards. That comes with a caveat, however, in that the Colts had pulled most of their players, and Collie was left in, making him the No. 1 option. Still, the rookie has played well down the stretch, including last week when he caught four passes, including one for a touchdown, for 52 yards.

3) Devery Henderson: Henderson showed some of that big-play ability last week that was missing from his game so often during the regular season. He caught a 44-yard touchdown pass as part of a four-reception, 80-yard day, and as one of the Saints' top-three wideouts, has a chance to pick up plenty of fantasy points each week. However, he isn't as consistently on the other end of Drew Brees' passes as you might hope, and receptions are too important in this scoring system to ignore.

4) Bernard Berrian: Berrian is on the outside looking in during most of the Vikings' offensive possessions, and as such he caught only three passes for 32 yards last week. He hasn't caught more than three passes in any of his last four games, and hasn't scored in seven contests. Still, he does have a chance to show up if this game turns into a shootout, so don't completely discount him.

Player 7

1) Visanthe Shiancoe: Shiancoe has proven to be a touchdown machine all season, and figured into the scoring again last week, even though it was his only reception of the game and came at the end of the fourth quarter (upsetting the Cowboys, and linebacker Keith Brooking in particular). But the fact is, he's scored in three consecutive games, so even if he doesn't catch a lot of passes, counting on him to find the end zone is something you can do with confidence.

2) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey caught his first touchdown since Week 6 in New Orleans' playoff win over Arizona last week, and for the game hauled in three passes for 36 yards. However, during the game, he seemed to be favoring the toe injury that had sidelined him at the end of the regular season, which may have hampered his production. If you're confident he's healthy, by all means consider using him because he does give you the ability to pick up points with receptions that Shiancoe may not.

3) Dustin Keller: After scoring just twice in the regular season, Keller scored his second touchdown of the postseason last week against the Chargers. Though he picked up just 19 yards in the contest, he did so on three receptions, which is a solid total in this scoring system. But considering his struggles to find the end zone during the regular season, you have to wonder if he has it in him to score for the third straight game.

4) David Thomas: Thomas had a big role in the Saints' offense when the aforementioned Shockey went down, but with Shockey back in the saddle, Thomas' production waned. He didn't have a catch last week, and is probably not someone you want in your fantasy football lineup this week.

Kicker

1) Ryan Longwell: Longwell made both of his field goal tries last week, and in fact missed only two field goal attempts all season. Despite playing on the road, he'll still be inside a dome, which is a welcome location for all kickers.

2) Garrett Hartley: Hartley is one of those players that falls in the high risk/high reward category. He nailed his only field goal try last week and plays for a robust offense, but on the other hand, he missed most of the season with an injury and does not have much postseason experience, so there's no telling how he'll react.

3) Jay Feely: The Colts allowed more field goals from 40-49 yards than any other NFL team, and that means solid points in this scoring system. Also, the Jets do not carry a potent offense with them into this contest, so field goals could be the order of the day.

4) Matt Stover: During the regular season, the Jets allowed the fifth-fewest field goals in the league, and the fewest extra points. Furthermore, kickers have missed all five field goals attempted against them so far this postseason. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but Stover gets the bottom ranking anyway.

Defense

(Note: We won't rank the defenses, because which team you believe will win will have a lot to do with the defense you select).

- Indianapolis Colts: The Colts' defense isn't superb, but they are facing a Jets team that scored the fewest points among winning teams in each of the two playoff rounds, and have a decided advantage in that they play at home.

- New York Jets: The Jets are tempting, but the Colts have an outstanding offense, and will be difficult to beat at home. Still, if you think they'll upset the Colts, they belong in the top spot.

- New Orleans Saints: The Saints allowed just 14 points to the previously potent Arizona offense in New Orleans' 45-14 beat down last weekend. New Orleans wasn't an imposing defense throughout the season, but they got plenty of turnovers, a formula that worked last week and will likely need to take shape again this week.

- Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota devoured the Dallas offense in every way last week en route to destroying the Cowboys 34-3. The Vikings have a better defense than the Saints statistically, especially against the run, but the Saints are a legitimately great offense, and the home crowd will be thunderous, considering this will be the first time in their history that they'll host an NFC Championship game.